EU CBAM Cost Calculator 2026-2034 (Excel, every rule sourced)

CBAM's definitive period started on 1 January 2026. Importers of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity now buy certificates against the carbon embedded in what they bring in. In 2026 the bill is small, because EU free allocation still covers 97.5% of it. By 2034 free allocation is gone and the same shipment costs forty times more. Most exporters have not run that number.

This workbook runs it.

• Enter up to 20 product lines: sector, quantity, embedded emissions, origin carbon price.

• The sheet applies the Annex II rule itself: indirect emissions count for cement and fertilisers, not for steel, aluminium or hydrogen.

• Certificate price defaults to the official Q1 2026 figure (EUR 75.36) and is editable.

• Projection sheet shows the same basket in every year 2026 to 2034 as the CBAM factor climbs from 2.5% to 100%.

• Sensitivity table across nine certificate prices and nine years.

• 50-tonne threshold check, certificate rounding, cost per tonne of goods.

• Sources sheet cites the Regulation, the ETS Directive phase-out schedule, and the Commission's price and default-value pages, with links.

It deliberately does not ship a copy of the Commission's default values table, because those are revised and carry a phasing mark-up. It links you to the current file and gives you a register to record what you looked up and when.

Live formulas throughout. Recalculated and checked against hand-worked examples before listing. Works in Excel and Google Sheets. No macros, no locked cells.