CBAM cost estimator, 2026 to 2034

Enter one basket of imports and read the certificate bill for the year you pick, then the same basket every year to 2034 as free allocation phases out. Annex II decides whether indirect emissions count; an origin carbon price reduces the net price. Free, nothing leaves your browser.

Period and price
CBAM factor is 1 minus the free allocation share (Directive (EU) 2023/959, Article 10a(1a))
Default: the official Q1 2026 price. Q2 2026 was 75.28. Quarterly in 2026, weekly from 2027.
Your assumption; the model does not forecast EU ETS prices.
Import lines
Sector (Annex I)CN codeOriginQuantity (t)Direct tCO2e per tIndirect tCO2e per tOrigin carbon price EUR per t
Use verified actual emissions from the producer where you have them; otherwise the Commission's default value for the CN code and country. Defaults carry a mark-up over the country average, so verified actuals are almost always cheaper.
The workbook: 20 lines, a price sensitivity grid and every sourceEU CBAM Cost Calculator 2026 to 2034, $29: the same model in Excel with live formulas, the projection sheet, a certificate price by year grid and the Sources sheet.
See the workbook

Rules: Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (Annex I goods; Annex II lists goods where only direct emissions count: iron and steel, aluminium, hydrogen; cement and fertilisers include indirect emissions from electricity used in production; imported electricity is priced on its own generation emissions). Free allocation phase-out: 97.5% (2026), 95% (2027), 90% (2028), 77.5% (2029), 51.5% (2030), 39% (2031), 26.5% (2032), 14% (2033), 0% (2034); the CBAM factor is the complement. The 50 tonne single mass threshold: below it there is no CBAM obligation. Origin carbon price (Article 9) is modelled as a per tonne credit against the certificate price, a simplification. This is a cost model, not the CBAM Registry declaration, and it does not cover the proposed downstream scope extension.